MyDD :: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a Plane!

Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a Plane!

by hypopg, Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:15:43 AM EST

Obama's numbers in Oregon seem to be flagging. A once certain double digit win appears to have been pared into low single digits.
Two polls have the already cast mail in vote at dead even. This morning's Suffolk poll has Obama up 4 points. Now Oregon is the kind of state Obama has to carry in the general. Now I don't subscribe to the logic that states one loses in a primary are lost to one in the general, nonetheless, it is troubling when the presumptive nominee gets routed in W.V. (a swing state) and is trailing by upwards of 30 points in Kentucky.

Obama is ending this primary season not with a bang associated with a likely winner, but with a whimper one associates with indecision and doubt. Had he not run up multiple wins in caucus states where a tiny fraction of the electorate participated, than the narrative would be altogether different today. But the fact is he did. And the nomination is likely his. But has he really captured the soul of the party? I wonder.

Hillary is staying in Kentucky until Tuesday (a tactical blunder on her part). A win in Oregon, which would be a huge upset, might give some SDs pause for thought. Hillary get on that plane!!

Tags: polls, Oregon, upset (all tags)

Permalink :: 54 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

Hillary. We love you, but get on that plane to Oregon. I'm calling into Oregon for you! I hope everybody on this site does so as well...

by RecentConvert on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:18:21 AM EST

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

The problem is that if she devotes time there, a loss looks worse.

by Falsehood on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:20:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

Uhhhhh......

It's too late. Ballots had to be mailed Saturday. I mean...people can still turn them in, but I'm not sure what Hillary going to Oregon would do.

by Terrance Manley on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:21:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

Don't worry, I'm sure ABC will also call it within the next hour or so.

Users who are excessively bashing the Democratic Party, or being Republican trolls, will be banned.

by Massadonious on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:21:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

They already did. It's right next to where they say Hillary Clinton is ahead in the popular vote.

http://abcnews.com/politics

We should be able to deliver bottled hot water to dehydrated babies.

by Jess81 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:25:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Tell me... (none / 0)

Which catergory of popular vote totals is actually the official count, as of right now.

Let me give you a hint. It's not the one next to the pleged delegate count.

Users who are excessively bashing the Democratic Party, or being Republican trolls, will be banned.

by Massadonious on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:31:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

She. Will. Win IT!! (none / 0)

I can feel it in the air.

Oregon will be the game changer!

by BlueinColorado on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:28:53 AM EST

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

Uh, wasn't this the same thing you guys said about North Carolina and Indiana? We saw how that worked out.

by sweet potato pie on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:33:20 AM EST

Re: Oregon (2.00 / 3)

In a televised (locally by station KGW) town hall forum, attending undecided voters sounded like they were won over by Hillary.
She met with voters and took their questions, I think, for a full hour. Barack Obama was invited to participate, but (of course) declined. Please click below to see news report on event. Be sure to watch to the end for interviews with attending citizens who give their impressions of Hillary.

http://www.kgw.com/video/video-index.htm l?nvid=246323

by moevaughn on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:35:29 AM EST

Re: Oregon (none / 0)

Yeah, of course he declined. What an elitist.

It's not like he had anything better to do.

Oh, wait.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24696575/

Users who are excessively bashing the Democratic Party, or being Republican trolls, will be banned.

by Massadonious on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:38:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon (2.00 / 2)

Reminds me of the time he chose to enjoy the adulation of followers at a New Hampshire rally and missed that pesky vote on whether or not to declare Iran a terrorist state.

by phoenixdreamz on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:10:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon (none / 0)

Reminds me of that time Clinton chose to avoid campaigning in New Hampshire to help lay the foundation for war with Iran.

Can't rec or rate -- next username, please!

by neeborMolgula on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:18:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: war with Iran (2.00 / 1)

Hillary knew it wouldn't happen, and it hasn't.

She put business before pleasure, and then campaigned in New Hampshire.

In fact, she won that primary resoundingly :)

by phoenixdreamz on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:39:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: war with Iran (none / 0)

It hasn't happened yet...

And yeah, she pulled off an amazing win in NH. Unfortunately, there are 49 other states.

Can't rec or rate -- next username, please!

by neeborMolgula on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:47:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

sure, why answer real questions (2.00 / 3)

when you can spend an hour with thousands of voters cheering your name?

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:20:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sure, why answer real questions (2.00 / 1)

If Senator Clinton COULD get that many people at a rally I guarantee you she would.

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:53:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

not her thing sweetie (2.00 / 2)

and not terribly useful except to get nation media attention.

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:00:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: not her thing sweetie (none / 0)

Yeah, and what use is national media attention to a presidental candidate?

John McCain

by Mandoliniment on Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:10:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (2.00 / 1)

Why is this diary posted twice...?

Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...

by JenKinFLA on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:39:37 AM EST

C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

If 14% undecided/others it is not clear what it means? Upset in the making or what?
Only clear that Obama is not getting even half of votes in state he supposedly will win, while Hillary getting two-thirds or more votes in states she is winning, like WV & KY.
Supers: why you supporting the loser?

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:49:10 AM EST

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

And, if WV and KY alone solely decided the general election, I might agree with you... except that McCain might also do well....

Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...

by JenKinFLA on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:52:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

They're not. They're supporting the guy who won more contests and more delegates. I know those other contests were meaningless though.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:56:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

- please remove caucuses from argument

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Mon May 19, 2008 at 08:58:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

Why? The supers wouldn't.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:03:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

and, um, you know, we vote in the general election. Our piddling little thirty or so electoral votes (Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota...) could just might maybe somehow play a role in this election.

Honest to god, what do you think it would take to get this notion through their marble heads?

by BlueinColorado on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:05:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

No no. It's OK to tell caucus states to piss off because no one needs them in the GE but MI & FL, who violated the rules, must be kowtowed to or they won't vote Dem in the GE and you HAVE to have them.

There is no consistency here. It's all about manipulating numbers so Clinton has more of something. The problem for them is that the Supers know the rules of the game and all this attempted manipulation isn't going to fool them. They are the least likely to fall for it.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:09:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

yes they would: all red states... unless supers want to lose

Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties

by engels on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:40:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

The supers are well aware of the rules. Caucus states count just like everyone else and it's a race for delegates.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:53:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

Gosh and here I thought I lived in the state of Wellstone, Humphrey, and Mondale. It sucks living in such a ruby red state as Minnesota.

Just awful.

Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome

by kasjogren on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:55:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

ah... the old Mark Penn "We decide which states will count!!" strategery.

Speaking of backing losers.....

by BlueinColorado on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:03:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: C41-O45, 14 undecided/others? (none / 0)

You should remember that Hillary is running for President Of The United States, not President Of The States Of The Primaries I Won.

Users who are excessively bashing the Democratic Party, or being Republican trolls, will be banned.

by Massadonious on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:16:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Just like polls were way off in North Carolina (none / 0)

I think that that poll is off. I think that Obama will win Oregon by double digits.

by puma on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:07:33 AM EST

Oregon Upset in the Making (2.00 / 1)

Hillary winning OR as well as KY would be a massive upset. Even if she closes the gap in OR, keeping it to single digits, would be huge and definitely a game changer.

by grlpatriot on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:16:09 AM EST

Re: Oregon Upset in the Making (none / 0)

A game changer? What does that mean this late in the process? She'd win SD?

Beat McCain!

by thezzyzx on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:40:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Upset in the Making (none / 0)

Decisive and game changer are tossed around a lot and appear to have been rendered meaningless.

12 wins in a row was decisive and a game changer.

John McCain on social security.

by heresjohnny on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:58:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon Upset in the Making (none / 0)

Supers and pledgies.

by grlpatriot on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:40:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? (2.00 / 1)

Phew!!! Alsmot had me there. 75,000-80,00 at an Obama rally followed by a 4% spread poll - didn't sound too consisent.

Suffolk crosstabs - 75% of sample is over 45 amd 25% is 66 and older. Not very representative of the overall population.

by Rick in Eugene on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:33:51 AM EST

Hillary Get on a Plane! (none / 0)

Can you provide a link to the poll? I'd appreciate it.

by soyousay on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:38:55 AM EST

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

I would say 55-45 is the most likely outcome at this point.

by Bobby Obama on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:41:39 AM EST

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

Hillary has topped out at 45 in the recent polling. RCP average is 51-41, so it seems like you're right on based on current polling. Will be interesting to see the rest of the polls today. I'd say 56-44 Obama.

Even though Hillary left the state, Bill has been campaigning hard there. Could be interesting, but I don't think so.

I like baked beans.

by SpideyDem on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:00:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary gets 41% (none / 0)

Sounds about right. The rest of it is crap. The numbers don't even add up to 100% WITH undecideds.

The KY one is screwier.

by elrod on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:55:30 AM EST

The problem with Oregon (none / 0)

Is with their 100 percent mail in balloting, one would have to campaign way before the "election day" which might more accurately be called "counting day".

That said, I hope Hillary does well in Oregon.

accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking

by Sychotic1 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 09:57:26 AM EST

it is not 100 percent mail in BTW (2.00 / 2)

people can drop their ballots in a ballot box on election day.

For Obama it now becomes: Faith, hope and CHANGE! And the greatest of these is Change!

by TeresaInPa on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:23:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The idea stands (none / 0)

That is a nit to pick.

My point was that most people have mailed in already. Even Obama's big rally yesterday is actually after a goodly portion of the ballots being mailed.

accepting McLettuce is like being 9 years old and forced to eat your own cooking

by Sychotic1 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:25:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Get on a Plane! (2.00 / 2)

Hillary should get on a plane to Oregon. Obama is conceding Kentucky and will be going to Iowa. So now is the time to be in Oregon.

Dizzy Zzyzzy

by Zzyzzy on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:11:55 AM EST

We almost have him.. (2.00 / 2)

we almost have him! We almost have him! It's right around the corner! Almost, almost..!!

Hey, where'd he go???

by standd on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:31:58 AM EST

standd you just made my day...... (none / 0)

ROTFLMAO!!!

by DCCyclone on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:42:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (2.00 / 1)

Obama has this small lead in pledged delegates because he won big in caucus states. Caucuses are undemocratic and don't allow for maximum participation by democrats. Only the activists in the party turn out for them and they are all behind Obama. Look...Obama wins the Idaho caucus by 13,000 votes and he nets 13 delegates..Hillary wins the Pennsylvania primary by 200,000 votes!! and only nets 10 delegates. How is that representative of the Democratic party?? It isn't..Hillary will win the popular vote at the end of this..and she will play the role of Gore and Obama will be Bush and the DNC will be the supreme court. History repeats itself. The guy with the fewer votes wins.

by karajan72 on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:39:41 AM EST

Ask a statistician (none / 0)

What they think about this "popular vote" as a valid metric.

This is not a homogeneous election like the general.

This contest is a mix of caucuses, open primaries and closed primaries--it's pure gibberish to just add them together. This contest was never designed to validate a raw vote tally.

A system of conversion, a common currency was required and that currency is the seated delegate count.

The seated delegate count is the "popular vote."

by luckymortal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:18:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

besides, (none / 0)

the Gore debacle was not that he won the popular vote and still lost.

It's that he REALLY won the electoral college too.

But had it stolen away by the supremes.

by luckymortal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:20:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary Get on a Plane! (none / 0)

But the latest polls in Oregon show Clinton within striking distance. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent refusing a response, according to a Suffolk University survey released this morning. An American Research Group survey puts Obama's lead at 50 percent to 45 percent.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/poli ticalintelligence/2008/05/clinton_closin g.html

by soyousay on Mon May 19, 2008 at 10:57:32 AM EST

Look HRC is a good candidate (none / 0)

with the best political machine in the business.

And many many effective, intelligent, passionate, devoted supporters.

As long as she keeps fighting, of course there's going to be "indecision." I'd be damned surprised if it wasn't close.

And since Obama has won, that means that he must be a really damn good candidate too.

I don't buy your argument that HRC is such a weak candidate that it's somehow surprising that Obama can't beat her.

I disagree with you. I think she's really good.

But he won.

by luckymortal on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:13:52 AM EST

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? Hillary Get on a (none / 0)

If only there were some way you could make money off that belief...

Can't rec or rate -- next username, please!

by neeborMolgula on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:24:46 AM EST

Re: Oregon, Upset in the Making? (none / 0)

I've looked at internals of Suffolk Poll, which show only 26% of the sample under the age of 45. That seems very low and raises question of missing younger voters using cell phones etc. I will not be suprised if BO's lead is cut to high single digits, but if HRC's own polling showed this at 4% you can bet that she would have never left Oregon.

Also, because Oregon turnout is expected to be very high, 70% or more, with Kentucky much lower, any increase in BO's margin in Oregon will cut into HRC's raw popular vote net gain tomorrow. She needs to at least double and probably triple his margin in Oregon to yield a popular net gain from her win in Kentucky.

by Kensingtonbill on Mon May 19, 2008 at 11:47:43 AM EST

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